Since its epic move to an almost three-year high yesterday, Bitcoin has retreated by around 4% to current prices which are in the $17,600 zone. It does appear to be consolidating here though so another leg up could be imminent.
On the flip side, a correction of reasonable size would not be out of the question since previous bull markets experienced several 30% plus pullbacks.
Bitcoin Correction Scenarios
Analyst and charting guru Peter Brandt has been delving into the possibilities of a large pullback for Bitcoin which has made a monumental 30% since the beginning of November and reached its highest ever market cap.
He stated that there were nine significant corrections during the last bull market of 2015 to 2017 with the average being a 37% decline.
During the 2015-2017 bull market in Bitcoin $BTC, there were 9 significant corrections with the following averages:
37% decline from high to low
14 weeks from one ATH to the next ATH
Since the early Sep low there have been two 10% corrections pic.twitter.com/E1LbN7VDa5
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 16, 2020
The last one in the current cycle was in early September when BTC plunged from just below $12k down to just over $10k in four days. The approximately 15% correction was less than half the average expected from previous cycles so what can we expect from a larger one?
A 37% pullback from current levels will send BTC prices back to around $11,200, but this is still 55% higher than Bitcoin was at the beginning of this year.
There is also the premise that pullbacks will not be as violent during this market cycle due to the fact that institutional funds such as Grayscale have been loading up on the asset which generally lowers volatility.
Analyst and brainchild of the stock-to-flow model ‘PlanB’ stated that this time around will be very different because;
“Big difference with 2017 is that most BTC sold today will never see the daylight again, they disappear into deep cold storage. Buyers today are professionals with long term vision and staying power.”
With economic woes worsening, and central banks debasing fiat currencies, the tendency to hold on to an asset that is deflationary is a strong one, especially for institutions with long term targets, and professional investors who are still loading up.
Where to in The Short Term?
Bitcoin has wicked down to the 50 hour moving average three times over the past two days but it is consolidating above it at the moment.
A larger retreat could take it back to support around the $16,700 level in the short term, and a large correction to $14k where the 50 day moving average lies. On the upside, there is very resistance all the way up to the all-time high of $20k.